Eelam Politics in Tamil Nadu

The Sad story of Sivanandan

Even as I write this post 48 year old Sivanandan from Karur is battling for his life at the burns ward of the Kilpauk Hospital in Chennai. He has suffered 70 percent burns and doctors say chances of his survival are not very bright.

He was reportedly upset at the the worsening condition of the thousands of Tamil civilians in the conflict ridden North eastern coastal district of Mullaithivu in Sri Lanka.

He reportedly shouted slogans protesting the worsening humanitarian situation in Sri Lanka and the killing of thousands of innocent civilians there before setting himself ablaze.

He is the 14th person in the state to attempt self immolation in the last few months.

The helpless angst in Tamil Nadu

It is reported that over 3500 Tamil civilians have dies and nearly three times the number injured in just the last four months in conflict hit areas of North Sri Lanka. Dozens continue to die and suffer injuries every day.

Food, drinking water and medicines are reportedly in short supply and so are trained doctors and support staff.

It is reported that Children are dying of undernourishment , dead bodies pile up on the road side after each air raid and round of mortar/ artillery shelling.

Independent journalists are not allowed free access to the conflict zone by either side.

The Sri Lankan government blames the Tamil Tiger Rebels for the plight of the civilians, accusing them of holding the civilians as "human shields" and firing at civilians fleeing areas under their control. They promising to "liberate" the civilians and wipe out the last remaining rebel fighters.

The rebels blame the army fire for the civilian deaths. They say the civilians are staying put in areas held by them out of choice...because of fear that they will be beaten and tortured if they fall in Sri Lankan army hands.

And as the two sides dig in for the "final battle" more and more civilians are dying each day.

The Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse, made an official trip to the fallen rebel capital of Killinochi this week. He seemed in no mood to stop his war against the rebels...regardless of the high costs.

Election season in India

All this comes bang in the middle of election season in India.

Tamil Nadu's 6.6 crore Tamils have a deep cultural and historic relationship with the much smaller Tamil community in Sri Lanka. The number of Tamil civilians trapped in the conflict zone is variously estimated between 80,000 and 3,50000.

It is no wonder then that this has become an emotive pre-poll issue. Hundreds have turned up for rallies across the state calling for an end to the war in Sri Lanka and relief for the trapped civilians.

Every political party wants to milk the sentiment.

The ruling DMK led Democratic Progressive Alliance has been accused by the opposition AIADMK led alliance of not doing much to force the central government to end the war in Sri Lanka.

The DMK is a key ally of the Federal government. It's support is crucial for survival of the UPA government at the center.

The opposition says the DMK could have done more to influence and change India's Sri Lankan policy and end the war and suffering of Tamil civilians on the island nation.

The Dynamics of Change

In a surprise move the AIADMK, at one time a bitter critic of the LTTE, has in its manifesto said that Eelam, or a separate state for Tamils in Sri Lanka was inevitable if their genuine aspirations of the Tamil people were not met and if they were not treated with dignity and honour.

This is seen as a radical shift in its stand. Some experts say the party has calibrated its policy in keeping with popular sentiment in the state ahead of the elections. They say allies like MDMK's Vaiko and PMK's Dr Ramadoss have played a big role in bringing about this change.

Vaiko is perhaps the only Tamil politician to have been consistently committed to the Eelam cause over the last two decades. He has even been jailed on many occasions for his support to the Tamil Tiger rebels, a banned organisation in India.

The AIADMK hopes to play a big role in the formation of the next government in New Delhi. The change in its stance at this point is very significant.

The writing on the wall for the DMK is clear.

It has failed to get any significant tangible benefits or relief for the suffering Tamil civilians in Sri Lanka and has failed to convince the central government to cajole the Sri Lankan government to halt the war.

The only option with the DMK government now is to shift the blame on to the Union government.

The wily DMK chief M Karunanidhi has sent the Indian prime minister a late night telegram, asking him to snap diplomatic ties with Sri Lankan if it does not immediately agree to a permanent ceasefire.

Ahead of the elections, the Congress finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Too Little, Too Late

Karunanidhi's desperate telegram comes just hours after Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukharjee took time out of his hectic election campaign to issue India's toughest statement yet on the issue.

Observers say the timing of the statement is significant. The language used in the statement unlike the ones issued in the past is not guarded and nuanced.

It has clear political undertones and is largely seen as a statement issued to minimise damage for the congress and its allies in the upcoming general elections.

'The Government of Sri Lanka must extend this pause in hostilities to prevent further casualties and enable trapped civilians to leave the area to secure locations. Continuation of precipitate military actions leading to further civilian casualties at this time would be totally unacceptable. While it is incumbent on the LTTE to release all civilians and IDPs under their control, the Government of Sri Lanka cannot be oblivious to the evolving human tragedy and the fate of the Tamil civilian population caught up in the so-called No Fire Zone. There is no reason not to continue with the pause in military actions in the NFZ."

The Sri Lankan government has not responded to the statement so far and is unlikely to end hostilities. Ahead of the polls this leaves the DMK led government in Tamil Nadu particularly vulnerable.

The Indian government can do little to walk its talk on the issue. It is unlikely to heed Karunanidhi's advise to snap diplomatic ties with Sri Lanka.

And as for the civilians in the Vanni, India's latest statement may have come a little too late in the day...and it is also perhaps too little to bring any tangible relief.